Principles and Practice of Forecasting

Instructor: Prof. Dr. Matthias R. Fengler

The course focuses on the methods and practices of leveraging historical data and insights for effective business forecasting, drawing on real-world cases from the APAC region.

Course Objective

• Students will gain knowledge of key forecasting methods relevant for applied work in business and economics.
• Students will understand the basic techniques for data preparation, model estimation, and forecast evaluation.
• Students will learn to apply relevant R packages and gain programming practice

Course Content

• Introduction and Setup
• Visualizing Time Series Data
• Time Series Decomposition
• Time Series Regression
• ARIMA Modeling
• Dynamic Regression Models
• Advanced Forecasting Techniques: Density Forecasts
• Forecast Evaluation: Tests and Model Confidence Sets

Course Structure

The course comprises self-study components, group work, and traditional lectures, including an online kick-off session.

Application Procedure

To apply for the course please send an email including a CV and a half-page motivation letter to Matthias.Fengler@unisg.ch. The application window is between August 6, 6:00pm CET and August 25, 11:59PM CET. Applications are considered on a “first come, first served” basis. Results will be communicated no later than August 27, 2025.